Ohio vs. San Diego State.
With Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke apparently back at full strength following his ACL tear last fall, San Diego State has seen its spread shrink. But our betting picks are more interested in the game's total as these teams will likely head to the ground.
There is possibly no greater rush of joy than the one that comes with the return of college football after a long wait during the offseason.
One highly competitive and intriguing game on tap for Week 0 features two of the better Group of 5 teams around this season — the Ohio Bobcats of the MAC and the San Diego State Aztecs of the Mountain West.
Something new this year in college football is the changes in rules where the clock no longer stops after a first down for the majority of the game. That could be a factor in this game with two teams that like to control the ball offensively.
Looking at
college football odds, the total is set at 49 while the Aztecs are a -2.5 favorite. Check out if I agree with those prices with my best bet and stay tuned for my full
college football picks and predictions for Ohio vs. San Diego State on Saturday, August 26.
The
Ohio Bobcats won 10 games in 2022, the first time they’ve reached double-digit victories since 2011. They appear well-positioned again entering 2023 with the MAC Player of the Year,
Kurtis Rourke, returning at quarterback along with 1,000-yard rusher Sieh Bangura and three of his top four wide receivers, including Sam Wiglusz who popped off for 877 yards and 11 touchdowns a year ago.
One offseason storyline to follow had been Rourke's health after he tore his ACL last November. Reports indicated that he was back to full strength in Fall camp and he’s expected to be 100% in the opener.
The offensive line should be in good shape, too, as it’s made up of all upperclassmen with four seniors and one junior averaging 315 pounds.
Now let’s take a look at the
San Diego State Aztecs.
Typically one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country, especially out west, the Aztecs are coming off a disappointing 7-6 season in which they fired their offensive coordinator midway through the year.
After transitioning to safety,
Jalen Mayden made his way back to the quarterback position and shined. Under quarterback coach Ryan Lindley, he led the Mountain West with 8.6 yards per attempt — an incredible feat for a player making a position switch to arguably the most difficult position in sports.
They get an interesting matchup against an Ohio defense that was terrible to start the year (561 YPG allowed across their first six games of ‘22) but solid to end it (351 YPG across their final seven). The top two tacklers return to this 4-2-5 defense but the line loses three key players, including an All-MAC defensive end and the team’s tackles-for-loss leader.
These are two quality teams and I expect both to execute their game plans for the most part. Both offenses thrive when they’re able to slow the game down and control the clock, so I do not expect an up-tempo affair considering both teams averaged over 31 minutes in time of possession a year ago.
Ohio’s offense struggled with just 10 points in each of its two most difficult non-conference tests a year ago against Penn State and Iowa State. San Diego State loses its impact players along the defensive front but returns six of its top seven secondary players, so Ohio is more likely to try to get the ground game going, especially with a quarterback coming off an ACL tear. Even with some losses, this Aztecs defense finished sixth in EPA per play and 19th in success rate a year ago and the 3-3-5 look will be difficult for Ohio to exploit too badly.
The aforementioned Lindley, now the Aztecs' OC, said his offense is modeled after Utah and I expect plenty of runs and ground control for a team losing its top two wide receivers. The offensive line was poor last year, ranking 119th in line yards and 125th in stuff rate. Considering Ohio’s defensive improvement late last year, I’d be surprised if the Aztecs came out chucking to light up the scoreboard.
This is a game where the rule changes for clocks not stopping after first downs could come into effect. Both teams run a ball-control offense and will be happy to eat up time off the clock, which sets up well for an Under.